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US Spot ETF Realized Price

Average cost basis of US spot ETF BTC

PropertyValue
CategoryETF Analytics
UnitUSD
Resolution1d
AssetsBTC
TierBasic
API EndpointGET /v1/etf/aggregate
Fieldus_spot_realized_price

Overview​

US Spot ETF Realized Price is the average price at which the Bitcoin currently held by the US spot ETFs was acquired — the cost basis of the US spot ETF cohort. It is shown from 10 January 2024, the day the SEC approved spot Bitcoin ETFs.

The cost basis is tracked fund by fund with a weighted-average-cost method and then added up over the US spot funds:

  • On the first day of a fund's history its holdings are valued at that day's BTC price.
  • When a fund's BTC holdings grow, the new coins are added at that day's BTC price.
  • When they shrink (redemptions, or sponsor fees paid in BTC), the fund's cost basis is reduced in proportion to the coins that left, so its average cost does not change.

GBTC keeps the cost of the BTC it bought as a trust since 2013, so at the start of the ETF era the cohort's realized price is far below the BTC price of January 2024. It rises as new ETF money buys at higher prices and as GBTC's low-cost coins are redeemed.

Formula​

US Spot Realized Pricet=∑f∈US spotRCf,t∑f∈US spotBf,t\text{US Spot Realized Price}_{t} = \frac{\sum_{f \in \text{US spot}} \text{RC}_{f,t}}{\sum_{f \in \text{US spot}} B_{f,t}}

RCf,t={RCf,t−1+(Bf,t−Bf,t−1)×Ptif Bf,t>Bf,t−1RCf,t−1×Bf,tBf,t−1if Bf,t<Bf,t−1\text{RC}_{f,t} = \begin{cases} \text{RC}_{f,t-1} + (B_{f,t} - B_{f,t-1}) \times P_t & \text{if } B_{f,t} \gt B_{f,t-1} \\ \text{RC}_{f,t-1} \times \dfrac{B_{f,t}}{B_{f,t-1}} & \text{if } B_{f,t} \lt B_{f,t-1} \end{cases}

  • Bf,tB_{f,t} — BTC held by fund ff on day tt; PtP_t — the BTC price of day tt
  • RCf,t\text{RC}_{f,t} — the fund's realized cap (cost basis in USD); on the fund's first day RC=B×P\text{RC} = B \times P
  • Empty before 10 January 2024

Interpretation​

  • BTC price above the US Spot Realized Price: US spot ETF holders as a whole are in profit, which tends to reduce redemption pressure.
  • BTC price below it: the cohort is at a loss; institutional risk limits can accelerate redemptions.
  • Rising realized price: new money is buying at prices above the current average cost, or low-cost GBTC coins are leaving.
  • Compare with the global ETF Realized Price: a gap shows whether US holders bought at better or worse prices than ETF holders elsewhere.

Use Cases​

  • US institutional profitability: the most direct gauge of whether US spot ETF holders are in profit or loss.
  • Redemption risk: when the BTC price approaches this level, expect more pressure on US ETF outflows.
  • Support level: the cohort's cost basis often acts as dynamic support during corrections.
  • Fund drill-down: ETF Realized Price (Per Fund) shows each fund's cost basis, including GBTC's legacy coins.

API Usage​

curl -H "Authorization: Bearer YOUR_API_KEY" \
  "https://api.blocklens.co/v1/etf/aggregate?start_date=2024-01-01&end_date=2024-12-31&limit=365"